4:09 PM Sat, Nov 22, 2008 | Permalink |
Bellevue researcher Jim Hebert says business leaders in the Seattle area think the downturn will last , on average, about 19 to 20 months. They also believe the turnaround will begin on Main Street before it begins on Wall Street. That means, according to Hebert, that jobs and business investment will bounce back before the Dow does. This would be a fundamental change from how recent recessions have ended.
In the mean time, he sees businesses trying to cope with shrinking profits and diffiulties getting loans. Workers are likely to see prices rising faster than salaries. The one bright spot, says Hebert, is that the business community still sees employment growing but at a much slower rate than recently. Hebert points out the one caveat is that the economic landscape is changing very quickly and what business leaders think one day may change the next day.
So how long do you think the downturn will last? One year, two years, perhaps ten years like the Great Depression?
Its amazing that you only hear from these economists and think-tankers after all hell's broken loose, not before. They're all writing "I told-ya-so" books now so they can cash in on the economy problems that hit them by surprise as much as it did most everyone else. Although I have to ask, how does a 700 billion (and counting) problem sneak up on these so called experts and they dont bother ringing people to battle stations? I know!! Its embarrassing and career ending if they're wrong? And many have been and those many are never heard from again. So much easier to knee jerk after the fact..
Michael Medved is right on! If people seek
the truth - they need to read his book about
lies.
If we truly want to jump start our economy much faster than any huge government jobs projects, we should reduce the H1B1 Visa quotas immediately and expire most of the existing Visas. Too many of these people are taking away American jobs while sending their salaries abroad. With the huge number of unemployed Americans these vacated jobs could be filled in a few weeks.
What makes it even more annoying is that when I interview for other hi-tech jobs, at places like Microsoft, I am being interviewed by people who have H1B1 Visas.