I don't see any slow down. I live on north Beacon hill and it is such a great place to live. It is convenant to everywhere, great views and great new developments. New Jefferson Park, New Light Rail Station, New Library, Remodeled Schools. There are alot of new town homes being build and selling quickly. Living here you can save on gas and car costs and reduce your carbon footprint.

The "slow housing market" coupled with "when is the market going to hit bottom?" is now a nationwide perception supported mainly by the press. In truth, there are plenty of housing markets in the nation facing huge price drops due mostly to the nationwide home lending practices putting unqualified buyers into homes they eventually would not be able to afford. And this problem was perpetuated by Wall Street investors who today are pulling out of home lending crisis they nurtured for many years demanding higher yields on their investments. (Higher yields were generated by the home lending community creatively offering stated income and 100% financing loans to unqualified buyers at higher than market interest rates for the past five or so years. If you could fog a mirror, you qualified.)

Has this nationwide problem effected Seattle and the Northwest? You bet! Lenders effect every home market in this nation. Is the home market in Seattle and the Northwest spiraling downward as the press would have you believe like Detroit or Las Vegas, for instance? Absolutely not. Values for the most part have held pretty steady here. The foreclosure rate in Washington State at 1-2% remains unchanged over the last decade. The appeal of the Northwest and its home market is stronger than ever, supported by healty employment opportunities projected far into the future. Can you call Seattle another Detroit or Las Vegas? No!

Finally, a little research will show you there are actually fewer homes (up to 20% fewer) available on the market in Seattle and generally in the Northwest today than there were 10 years ago. Given our Northwest growth rate projections, there simply are not enough available homes today. Why are they not being snapped up? The buyers are facing tougher home lending qualification standards. The average buyer listening to the news mistakenly thinks this market is identical to Detroil or Las Vegas. It simply is not.

Matthew Smith
Gig Harbor WA

My husband and I live in Wenatchee. The housing market has been flooded in the last couple of months and it's definitely a buyers market. The length of time houses are on the market is months instead of weeks or days, and prices are dropping far more quickly than say 6 months ago. A friend of ours sold his home in April for $175 and we were told by his agent that same home today would be lucky to go for $130. We are going to buy and are cautiously waiting for prices to go down even more. The real estate agents are predicting a very bad year if not two

The market is somewhat saturated with inventory in most areas and price ranges. However, the prices are still appreciating. Marketing time has doubled in alot of areas but if you are not in a hurry and you are willing to maintain the property and keep it in tip-top condition you will succeed. Pricing it right is a must and it will only hurt you if you overprice it from day one. Patience and perseverence will prevail!

Did the guest from John L Scott Reality, have to pay for the advertising? i would have been more impressed by a more impartial guest.

I bought my house in May and now (for personal reasons) have to sell it. I
can't afford to sell for less than I paid for it so can't afford to lower the price! I have had at least two couples interested in buying but they can't sell their house so they can't buy mine. I will try
renting out this house if it
does not sell in the next year. It has been for sale
for 4 months so far.

I see the bottom being a long way off. Lets factor the economy as a whole. Of course lending rules have tightened up and that is good since they were out of control, but lets add in out of control interest rates on credit cards and gas prices higher than ever, wage increases lower then ever. The economic reality of all this is that people will have to live within their means. Alot of people in our hot Gig Harbor market are not elgibile in todays stantards for the homes they are in let alone homes in such a inflated market as here..Add everything in and there will be a big adjustment.

People who believe the housing market won't drop in Seattle don't have a basic understanding of economics.

The argument I hear often for why the market here won't drop compared to the rest of the nation is "limited supply of land" and "strong job growth". Those are good reasons but other conditions also need to be evaluated to understand why prices in Seattle WILL drop.

First time home buyers aren't able to buy homes here. Most buyers at these prices have equity in their homes here or in their homes in other parts of the country. In order to buy a house you'll have to sell your house or get a bridge loan which is likely difficult to obtain. If the buyer is moving here from another part of the country and they can't sell their home then they can't complete the purchase of the house here. This creates a domino effect causing sellers in Seattle to adjust their price down. Sellers are getting less money for their homes here and elsewhere so that also puts pressure on the sales prices.

The article in Fortune magazine compared the price of housing to rental costs and the article concluded that it's significantly less expensive to rent then to buy. It's basic economic theory that people will rent if it's cheaper than buying a home. The home buying frenzy created a "bubble" and prices need to be adjusted down so the prices of homes are back in equilibrium with rents and wages.

There are other parts of the country like Seattle that have limited amounts of land but they still see pricing adjustments. San Francisco is a good example of a city with limited land available for housing.

Home prices here have more than doubled in the past 5 years! That kind of growth is not sustainable and it was caused by irresponsible lending practices and speculative investing.

The interviews with people like Lennox Scott are interesting to watch but since these people work in Real Estate it's expected that they'll tell you everything is fine and you should buy a home now. King 5 should talk to economists who are independent of the real estate profession so they can explain the rationale behind why the market is overdue for a correction.

I grew up in Seattle and I've often seen the effects of a recession hit other parts of the nation before it affects Seattle. These economic downturns sometimes take a while to impact Seattle but they eventually do hit Seattle. For example, in early 2000, the recession hit the rest of the country before Seattle too. Seattle was impacted by the recession and it was one of the last areas to recover from it. The housing price adjustments will also hit Seattle and it's not going to do any good to stick your head in the ground and act like it won't!

Why is K5 news talking to so many real estate agents on this subject. They are hardly objective. More independent information please, K5.

So the median price of a home has increased 90% in the past 7 years? Unfortunately, salaries have not increased as much, making housing here extremely unaffordable. This is why we are in the mortage crisis debacle - people are purchasing homes they cannot afford.

Unless there's a huge increase in wages, home prices must go down to become affordable.

If you look at prices in King county at the moment, sellers are looking for 50% more than what they paid in 2004/2005. Is it any surprise they can't sell in a hurry? Sorry, sellers, but the good old days are over and we are back in the real world. If you want to sell your house, stop listening to the real estate agents and price your house reasonably. And buyers, you are right to be cautious. The market IS overpriced at the moment, and there IS a correction in progress, although it is being hindered by the real estate agents who are determined to preserve their margins. If you can wait, the prices are going in one direction now... down.

I don't think the CEO of John L. Scott even mentioned the broader econmony. What will happen if the big banks have to write off another $80 billion in bad loans, the stock market tanks, the dollar keeps crashing, the housing market could fall quite a bit farther. The market is one the best in Seattle, but people who just watch the housing market and not all economic factors are missing the whole picture. It seemed to me that the CEO of John L. Scott pushed what was best for John L. Scott. If a recession happens, jobs will be lost, people will spend less, and then what will happen to housing?

I wasn't impressed by the John L. Scott infomercial this morning. Is this what passes for news on K5 nowadays?

Please don't listen to John Lennox Scott. He is nothing but a salesman. He knows what's going on with the market. He is simply protecting his business interests by saying the market is not going to go down much. Home prices are moving down in most Seattle neighborhoods. If your in a great location and don't need to drive or can rely on public transportation your in a great spot. The outlying areas are seeing huge price declines as much as 20% in many locations. This is only the beginning. Foreclosures are skyrocketing. Don't believe me, check your local legal notices in the newspaper. They have grown substanially the last few months. And will get much worse by the end of 2008. The PNW is certainly in a better position than many parts of the country but the factors influencing this market are monumental. Realistically as a buyer it is a time of great opportunity. But you have to do your homework. Relying on a salesperson is the last thing you want to do. Also these low interest rates aren't going to last. Tell me what you think is going to happen when rates go up significantly. Ouch.

Overall in the Greater Seattle area we will see depreciation of 10 to 30%, Depending greatly on your location and market segment, every neighborhood is different. By early 2009 we should be leveled off and see flat appreciation for years. Of course if the financial markets get much worse which is of course a risk, things could get much worse. If inflation is not put in check we might not see so much price depreciation our money just won't be worth as much.

Justin
Port Orchard

One word best describes the Seattle market...DENIAL.

We all would like to sound positive about the whole mess, but economic reality IS- Period! The sub-prime mortgage debacle is just the tip of the ice berg. Just watch, "In Debt We Trust" if you think there's room to scoff it all off as a mere isolated temporary setback in an otherwise strong economic future picture. True, economic slumps have occured before, but nothing quite like the reasons behind it have ever occured before. We must ask how are we ever going to reestablish trust again in all markets if we keep erroding the fundamentals of same justified trust for consumers as a whole? We keep finding the reasons to go back to what keeps getting us into trouble in the first place. And what's more, unlike the situations before, now that the industrial/technological time/profit 'coin' is spent and gone, there's nothing sensibly logical and believably inspiring on the Global socio/economic horizon to 'sell' to the upcoming young people entering "the workplace". Better send the right message, eh??? And it might be better if it wasn't masterfully spun by a high end Real Estate Salesman.

On another note, since the 80's, many have come to see Real estate as a turn around investment. Far too much emphasis on buying a house merely to sell it in a few years arter the market swings favorably. A home is somewhere you actually live, more than to be regarded as a business opportunity. And such, Realm Estate investors have flooded the markets with their profit making tactics as opposed to behavior that lends to stability and fair and sustainable market activity. Y'all get what you deserve, nothing but shallow hardship ripp-off behavior and careless cutthroat tactics, though many would insistently try to deny it.

So where was the other side to this report? Is King 5 just a sounding board for the real-estate industry? How can anyone believe what the president of a real-estate company is saying regarding housing prices? I mean... he is hardly non-bias on this...

If you are goning to talk about the housing market.

Be honest. THE BANKS INFLATED THE MARKET. THE INTERST ONLY LOANS SHOULD HAVE gotten the interest of the media when they were first introduced. I don't want to hear from only a member of the realistate industry. Why is their not a person being interviewed who actualy lost their home. What happened to balanced reporting? Where is the integretity in the media gone? Uncle Walter we miss you!

Asking a Real Estate Agent if it's a good time to buy a house is like having a meth -head ask his drug dealer if it's a good time to buy more meth. The dealer (agent) spins the facts to make a sale.
The answer will always be YES!

This was a great piece. The best part was the biased opinion from John L Scott.

Some people will do anything to make a buck. I'm glad this was on the air, I cn't wait for his client base to push back after he eats his words.

You cant just blame the banks for the way the market is. Many people got into homes that were at their limit on affordability but were able to get an arm or an intrest only loan until their circumstances improved(got a raise, paid off debt, etc.) and this made it more affordable for the buyer for the time being. Now the buyer should have stuck to their end of the bargain(gotten out of debt, gotten a better job or their raise so they could refinance or prepared for their arm to adjust) but they didnt. How is this the lenders fault??? Yes....some lenders gave out money to buyers who shouldnt have had loans but stated loans are good for some buyers in some circumstances(1099 employees, seasonal workers etc.) Intrestert only loans or arms work for some buyers as well.....I am a resposible lender and it makes me angry to see people only blaming the lenders for this mess. Much of the blame should fall on people who bought and couldnt hold up their end of the deal.

In contrast to the RE shill you interviewed on your show, Dr. Robert Shiller who might just be the top economist on this subject said just last week that residential real estate was poised to sink 50% in the next 5 years. When asked, "what inning we're in if this were a 9-inning game?", he answered, "the first"!!!!

Moreover, you can take all of the supposed reasons that Seattle is different and won't experience a correction and none stand up to scrutiny. The Bay Area, Los Angeles and Orange County have even higher wages and lower unemployment, not to mention better weather. I've heard all of the lame excuses for our superiority. None make any sense when investigated except one; greedy investors will always chase a bubble. In this case with the potential loss of more than $100K in new worth, there is a lot of denial.

I don't think the John L Scott CEO was saying that there would be no correction and that the market is perfectly fine. His message seemed to be (maybe a tad too "salesly" in his delivery) that there is and will continue to be a minor correction that will make it a great time for buyers to get something for a bit cheaper than earlier this year. Perhaps even more important, buyers can actually take the time to think and explore their options. I remember the news from several years ago about how buyers had to make a decision on the spot because everything was selling so quickly.

I also think that there are a lot of factors that contribute to the idea of a "soft" landing vs. a "hard" landing. Some areas defintely seem to be getting hit harder than others, and those areas tend to be farther away from Seattle.

In reply to one of the above posts about lenders, yes, not all lenders and not all realtors are bad. But as professionals that deal with what is often the MOST expensive investment a person will make, both professions should have more barriers to entry, more education and less personal incentive to complete a deal. Agents and lenders SHOULD know what a buyer's realistic price range is. As professionals, the industry experts have the duty to counsel their clients too. Buyers should buy within their means and if they can't afford to, maybe it's not the right time for them to buy yet.

I think the program should have contacted more local economists (there are couple of good ones that write for the local papers) as well. However, even the agents seemed to present a spectrum of opinion. One guy - perhaps to the detriment of his sellers - mentioned that listings were overpriced and it's a buyer's market in some of the areas that he works in. Hmm, talk about doing his clients a dis-service!

I like the doublespeak from the John L. Scott guy.

Q: How badly is the Seattle area exposed to subprime mortgages?
A: Oh, hardly at all!

Q: House prices are unaffordable - how can the middle class afford them?
A: Oh, with exotic subprime mortgages, of course!

The market will bottom out when houses become affordable to a majority of people and not before. The idea that people should just borrow more to support inflated prices is ridiculous and not based in reality. The bottom is a long, long, long way off folks.

Mr. Mak, I would like to know where you got the information that Forbes Magazine says the housing in Seattle will drop by 19%. You had that on your show and I have tried to find that article on the Forbes web site. The only articles on their site say how strong the housing market is here and this is the place to invest in real estate. I would like to see that article you spoke about and how they established that statistic. Thank you

Deena,

Here are the Forbes links

http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/06/real_estate/home_prices.fortune/index.htm

------------

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2007/fortune/0711/gallery.real_estate.fortune/22.html

Deena,

It must be Monday. The above links are to "Fortune" not "Forbes".

I can't help but notice the attack on J. Lennox Scott that is so prevelant in these responses. Questions as to why Robert would interview Realtors and the CEO of JLS for his piece on the local real estate market, as well as, comments that of course Mr. Scott would say the market is good since he has his bottom line to consider seem odd. Why? If you are contemplating open heart surgery who do you speak with? If you are considering your options for cancer treatment, do you call your neighbor or the best cancer specialist you can find? When deciding what tax breaks might be best for you do you make an appointment with an accountant or an auto body shop? We all seek out professionals in the industry that concerns us for advice and direction. It made complete sense for Robert Mac to interview professional realtors in our local market when asking about local statistics. Frankly I am glad to have finally heard from someone local rather than the bombardment of national information that we have been hit with. Robert spoke with three different individuals all from different real estate companies. The only thing that may have made it a bit more equal would have been to have had three CEO's from three different companies on a panel rather than just Mr. Scott. However, Robert Mac's time slot just isn't long enough to acommodate this type of panel.

Real estate should be considered a long term investment rather than a quick get rich scheme. Many people who are upset right now are those who were not properly advised to begin with. As with all investments there are ups and downs, waves to ride out so to speak. We are in a down cycle currently and as history repeats itself we will once again find ourselves heading back up. Those who have purchased and are able to stick it out will be thankful for the return on their investment. Anyone who thinks the Seattle market will bottom out and that we will see a drastic reduction in home values (not prices of current listings, but values) is kidding themselves. Historically home prices have doubled approximately every 10 years. It has always happened and it always will. We are a progressive society.

FYI, Kristi Lyn Reddy above works for the "heart surgeon", J. Lennox Scott.

http://www.johnlscott.com/agentdetail.aspx?UA=1&ic=1452780

The last person I want to ask about whether it's a good time to buy a used car is a used car salesman. They want to sell a car, they don't care if it's a good investment for you.

Real state "professionals" are in it for money; it's their livelihood and it's in their best interest to prop up a lagging market with all sorts of false-positive drivel as long as possible.

Smart potential buyers seek independent information. They don't get it from please-pay-my-commission real estate agents.

I have to agree with squidier. I can't stand to listen to this garbage coming from realtors. According to every realtor I've ever talked to, it's always "an excellent time to buy!"

Currently there is such a huge disconnect between what we can rent and what we can buy for roughly the same amount of monthly payment that I just can't imagine how most people who purchased over the last 3 years are going to come out financially ahead of the game for at least a decade. Not even including any short term depreciation risks they may have exposed themselves to. In-city home prices have doubled and even tripled in some areas in less than a decade. If the same thing happened with rents people would be out in the streets. I think our local housing market has been driven to unsustainable highs through pure speculation and loose lending. However much we love it here, it looks a lot like prices have been emotionally driven, rather than supported by any real major income increases across the board.

After looking at places to purchase for quite a while, for the time being my wife and I have decided to sit this spike out, save cash and use our lower monthly costs to invest for retirement. When the opportunity arises to purchase something we can afford to buy and that we like as much as what we currently rent, we'll be happy to take the plunge. That time is not right now for us.

so when is it ever a bad time to buy???...prices are going up...buy now or be priced out...prices are going down...buy now its a buyers market...huh? so whatever the housing market is doing it's always a good time to buy? If the market is so good why do they need to advertise with that crummy REALTOR commercial?

Why? If you are contemplating open heart surgery who do you speak with?

Realtors are not comparable to medical doctors.

If you go to an MD and ask him to perform an unnecessary heart transplant, sure, there's a lot of money in it for him but he'd be held accountable for the results.

Realtors are just salesmen, and once the deal closes they have very little accountability for the results.

Sales people may be experts in what they sell, but it's certainly not guaranteed. Some of the best salesmen know almost nothing about their products but they get to be where they are by knowing how to move inventory.

Ask a Realtor if you want to know how to sell a house - not whether it's a good time to buy. DUH!

I am struck by the mean-spiritedness of many of the comments on this subject. I've been in the real estate industry for over 3 decades and have helped many caring and skilled real estate professionals establish long careers helping their circles of family and friends become home owners. I've always felt it's the fulfillment of the American Dream for a family to own their own home. In fact, nationally, the percentage of homeownership is well over 65%, higher than at any time in history. Yet I hear sniping of "he's only a salesperson". Or don't ask a "salesperson" for an opinion because they have a "vested interest" in the outcome. To hear anyone who has a passion for their business and contributes to their industry and their community in a meaningful way sneeringly dismissed is pretty sad. Perhaps these observers forget that newspaper companies want to sell more papers. Good news isn't sensational. Television companies want more viewers. The sky is falling seems to get people's attention. Where are the stories about the families who live in great neighborhoods with great schools who found their homes because they had a bit more choice than in the frenzied market. They didn't want to "steal" it from anyone. They paid a fair price and now they will raise their family there. Where are the stories about that? Not that interesting, I guess. There are many economist's opinions available to study right now as to what will happen to home values in the Northwest. They don't all agree but for most the general theme is this is a normal market cycle, actually less severe than several I've experienced in the last 30 years. If everyone would just relax and go back to their own business, quit believing sensational headlines and failing to research or think for themselves, maybe some families who need a new home could get on with finding one that fits their needs. And they'll probably want the counsel of a good Realtor with experience in the area to help them.

Ms. Lindsay, I apologize if my statement above implied that I think all realtors are "bad" people. This simply isn't true, as in any group there are always good people. There are people like yourself who truly enjoy helping people find a home within their means so that they can live the coveted "American Dream".

That said, realtors have to understand that the backlash that the general populace will have towards the real estate profession is legitimate. Many realtors got greedy, pumped up the rhetoric, and proceeded quietly about their real estating business when they knew in their hearts that the commission they'd earn on a specific sale would most likely result in the purchasing family being forced into forclosure. Many of them knew this, or should have.

The idea that real estate prices MUST always go up, and that the values of homes ALWAYS appreciate is not realistic. It is simply not always the right time to buy. Yet that always seems to be the message thrown out by the NAR and its minions.

Any real estate professional who claims that it's always the right time to buy is either incompetent or motivated purely by self-interest. Where's the genuine in-the-buyer's-best-interest advice?

Why are realtors beginning to leave a bad taste in people's mouths? This demonic Century 21 ad ironically characterizes it quite well: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20n-cD8ERgs

"Real state "professionals" are in it for money;"

Wow, the secret is out Lennox Scott makes a honest living. Thanks Squidier real "heady" stuff.

"I like the doublespeak from the John L. Scott guy."

Didn't hear that monkey punch but like the name it seems appropriate.

Lived here all my life and have been a mortgage professional for over 20 years and this is a market place in transition no doubt and everyone has an opinion even if they are edited by Elaine Bennes with the exclamation points and all (Seinfeld).

My point is Forbes has come out and indicated ten years from now our property values will be double. Fortune on the other hand has come up with the 20% decline in five years. Who is right? The truth is who knows? I know monkey punch and Squidier don't.

Mr. Scott, (I don't know never met, never will) was offering up a perspective that needs to be considered. I ask the Shrill commentary in here...WHO DO YOU BELIEVE? The media? You buy into the hype machine?

Perspective, civil conversation is what Mr. Mak was trying to bring here. Mr. Scott comments are more toward accuracy then you will hear in the national media. Certainly the national media has succeeded hyping this but puts the glaze on the entire country and it is clear by reading some of the rants that they have failed to inform. I suppose if a Solar Panal salesman was on with Mak or how about a plumber then it would give credibility to cautious optimism? You are living in the northwest after all, "enlighten up".

When the very same media was printing/telecasting stories about how "seattle was special" and how RE is a great investment here, we never heard complaints about sensationalism or misleading the public from the "Realtors".

In fact most "Realtors" were gleefully reprinting these articles for their glossy marketing material.

Now that the media has turned, it is all about sensationalism isn't it ?

oh the hypocrisy !

I am a Realtor and I of course agree with Karen above. If you don't have to sell now you probably should not. One thing I would point out is if you do sell now, you will be buying in the same market you are selling in and that will evening things out.

The market is making a correction. It is a great time to buy. We just bought a duplex and got a great deal because of the time of year and the lack of confident buyers.

History shows that this market will pass and homes will continue to appreciate over time. Real estate in Seattle is and always will be a great imvestment. I know, I own 3 single family homes.

You can't expect to buy your home and make big profits in one or two years. Even worse if you got yourself into and interest only loan program.

Pick and agent that someone else you trust has used and been happy with. Don't buy a house just because your loan officer says you can afford the payment. Take responsibily for your monthly outgo and know "your" comfort level for your housing budget. This is just common sense.

Just talk really fast, Kirk (the mortgage professional for over 20 years), maybe nobody'll stop you to ask a real question. And if they do, just talk over 'em or skirt the issue altogether. Just keep spouting on about how great the economy is here and how everyone wants to live in the PNW. Lots of jobs and only so much land to build on.

Your post and its style indicate you're a salesman. You're locked in. Your livelihood depends on selling mortgages. And that's okay. But your last paragraph has just the faintest wiff of....

Notice for Kristi Lyn, Karen, Kirk and Tom:
If this is such a peachy time to buy, go ahead! No one is standing in your way. Buy another house to flip. You say it is still a good investment and Kirk says properties will double in a decade. Good luck to y'all.
From the excesses already in the system, prices will have to decline until they allow buyers to afford them. That has always taken place. This time is no different except this time the magnitude of the imbalance is larger than ever before in Western Washington. It is really that simple. If buyers can't purchase a house for 25-33% of their gross income, they shouldn't buy. That is why we have a buyers' strike now. Lenders are tightening their standards to a pre-bubble level and buyers are waking up to the fact that residential real estate can be a bad investment when price reversals occur.

My wife was a RE Agent for many years and she owned a Mortgage Brokerage for another 13 years. Even she sees the excesses that speculation have placed in today's market. Until and unless buyers can purchase a house for 33% of their gross income or less, the correction will continue. Lenders are tightening their standards to pre-bubble levels and their is a buyers' strike forming. I disagree with those who think this is a short term correction. We have never been here before. The imbalances between wage growth and housing prices has swung so far that it will either take a quick major correction or, more than likely, slow Chinese torture-like price declines over many years. A doubling of prices in ten years is as likely as a tripling of everyone's income in the same period and what would you bet against that?

"Kirk says properties will double in a decade."

Hal,
Read and Listen, think then write. I am not making any predictions nor should you and clearly your pre-disposition is such that you are just teeing off and not paying attention.

My point is simple. Nobody knows for sure. Just because a person is a realtor and make a living does not make them a liar. That goes for mortgage professionals too. It is OK to have an informed view and even an uninformed opinion (although painful to hear or read) but before you start throwing your crap at me be sure you have a clue why you think I should be the target.

Now pull the jack out of the bottom drawer and relax.

"Didn't hear that monkey punch but like the name it seems appropriate."

Kirk, you seem awfully angry and desperate. Something bothering you sweetheart? Note making much commission these days? Don't worry, "Seattle is special" and the good times will soon be here again.

Tom said:

"History shows that this market will pass and homes will continue to appreciate over time. Real estate in Seattle is and always will be a great imvestment. I know, I own 3 single family homes."

Tom, history does NOT show anything about the future. Did ANYBODY in 1928 think that the country would be in a depression for well over ten years? Anybody?

And please explain to me how purchasing single-family homes right now can pencil out as a good investment when you will be losing significant money every month due to the fact that you can only charge a fraction of your holding costs for rent. Are you telling me that future appreciation from today's prices is going to make up for all the monthly losses that I will experience in the mean time?

But we do know, Kirk, my wife was a RE Agent for many years. She was a "believer" back then. Having gone through 2 "corrections" in housing prices in the past, I speak from experience. WE ARE IN THE PROCESS OF ANOTHER RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE PRICE CORRECTION DUE TO SPECULATION, PERIOD! Any objective economist will tell you that if buyers cannot afford an asset, they will not buy it. The speculators have left the game. Now that the adjustment has started, it will go until prices decline and rents rise until we reach a reasonable equilibrium.

I do have one question for you, though. Please name one other time in U.S. history that we have had a National decline in median prices of housing in which there was not either a recession or inflation of such magnitude that long-term interest rates rose sharply? I'll give you a little hint....it rhymes with lever. BTW, this should give you some insight as to why this time is different. The "easy money" is drying up for homebuyers and on top of that, they are now aware that real estate is a highly leveraged investment where an investor can lose substantially more than their down payment. It's kind of like buying stocks on margin only worse. With stocks you can sell quickly and you don't have to pay taxes for just holding them.