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July 2009
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This winter I've heard more than a few dedicated fans of the "Farmer's Almanac" hold forth about what a fine job it's done in projecting the weather here in the northwest. I'll be up front; most meteorologists are skeptical...make that very skeptical... of this publication's prognostications. For example, the end of February is to be rainy and mild after a cold and snowy period. It seems like the "Almanac" got it backward...but let's take a more detailed look. Admittedly, the science of meteorology isn't perfect. Those of us who depend on computer analysis and projection have our misses as well. So let me play the devil's advocate, and allow the possibility that "the Almanac" does have some science behind it...and begin by examining it's record for the northwest the past few months. The first event of this very active winter was our excessive rainfall in November-triple the average amount. That kind of variation should be fairly easy to pick up. The Almanac's forecast for Washington state: average rainfall. The next major event was the December windstorm of the 14th and 15th. This was stronger in many places than the Inauguration day storm, and even approached the Hood Canal windstorm in magnitude. The Almanac didn't mention a thing about strong or even moderate winds. Much colder air followed that storm with areas of snow. The Almanac's take? Mild, rainy periods. Now late December and early January, the Almanac did hit one...with periods of snow...but then January 19th also brought a good shot of snow to the Puget Sound area. Misty and mild, opined the Almanac for that one. Early February brought a dry spell with very cold temperatures; a period the Almanac predicted mild, rainy conditions. Now the Almanac calls for mild, rainy conditions to end the month. It looks anything but mild for the last day of February...but we'll see soon enough. The Almanac, despite protestations to the contrary, largely bases its projections on 19th century science. All fields of science base acceptance of their methods on independent examination and verification. Arcane and hidden wisdom is the realm of coven-like huddles, not 21st century science.The Almanac staff follows a famous fast-food-restaurant's refusal to divulge their equivalent of a secret "recipe of herbs and spices". It is essentially, the meteorological equivalent of an astrological horoscope...a sort of incantation of atmospheric alignment. If we give the Almanac credibility, particularly based on their record this winter, then we should by all rights consult with astrologers swaddled in capes and cone hats, head bump oracles, entrail interpreters and palm readers to gain new perspective on our lives. It's not that different folks... By the way, should you believe I secretly keep a copy of the Almanac at my desk for surreptitious reference-I don't. I borrowed one for this missive...and have since returned it. Some of the articles are entertaining...just don't depend on it for forecasting...particularly those made one year or more in advance. The chicken remains in my waste basket are from dinner...not from forecasting. No bones about it. 6 Comments |
Being a part of a family that raised cattle for
years,. Every Nov. I buy Black-Eyed peas (for
the New Years Supper) & a "Farmers Almanac" and
I must honestly admit the "Farmers Almanac" is
much more dependable. I live in Port Townsend &
the weather has been mild with some light sprinkles but thats it. Just like the almanac
said. I get the "Port Townsend Leader" (a local
news paper) & there is a section where they
reprint newspaper articles from 100 yrs. ago
today, then go to 80, then 60, then 40, then 20
years ago, this includes the weather. You might
want to take a look at that. Dawg.
thanks for doing a good job with the weather ,we live in cle elum so we commute over the pass you always helping us withe weather on snoqulamie and youve saved me from being stuck on snoqlamie pass thanks Dennis Schmitt nelson siding rd
I wonder what the almanac has to say about chemtrails, or if they factor them into the equation. Take today for example, beautiful blue skies and after a few hours of planes laying down their trails, boom, instant man made cloud cover, not to mention what's in that stuff.
As of 5:45 pm what once was a blue sky with very few clouds and no noticable front moving in. Is now a white sky.
What's up with that, Jeff Renner
Re; Weather forcasting must be a problem but if you are predicting next years weather you can do so a lot easer as no one remembers what you reported a year from now.
Hi Jeff: I always catch your weather report & find it very helpful. Thanks for a good job of reporting in an area that is always quite unpredictable.
Jeff thanks for your help with the weather and the next big storm coming it really helps us prepare we work outside from cle elum and northbend doing landscape work so your call on the weather save us time and money.